Eight ways in which Annan and Hargreaves are wrong.....
Ok, that should be possibly. Annan and Hargreaves have used Baysean methods to set limits on climate variability using modeling results. Their estimates are only as good as the models and the observations that are available. Comes A. Barrie Pittock, from CSIRO in EOS to list a number of reasons why scientists might be underestimating climate change
- "Global dimming is decreasing", a large rapid decrease in a negative forcing.
- "Permafrost melting is widespread", increasing greenhouse gas warming in the Lord knows what ways
- "Biomass feedbacks are kicking in" in ways that constitute a positive feedback
- "Artic sea ice is retreating rapidy", a positive feedback via albedo changes
- "The northern and southern annular modes have become more positive"
- "Rapid disintegration of ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsul, surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and acceleration of outlet glaciers"
- "Tropical cyclones may be more intense"
- "A significant slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation" and other changes in the North Atlantic
This is not to say that Annan and Hargreaves are wrong, just that it can only be as complete as its inputs, and to the extent that we know that the inputs are lacking, we can question the answer they offer.