For those who do not know, the South Shore of Long Island is a long strip of low barrier islands. The most valuable land is closest to the shore and the lowest and most subject to flooding, including, of course, the Hamptons. As Eli often points out, a flood tide hitting that area would cause so much monetary damage that it would pay for just about any action the US takes to limit climate change.Well, that is soon to get a test. Not only has there been a fair amount of sea level rise in the area, but tonight the tides are high, and a certain weather disturbance will be in town. Eli is not one to claim that an additional half meter or more of sea level rise by itself won't cause some problems, but it is always the and not the or what gets you, so sea level rise, high tides and storm surge are the perfect combination.
The National Weather Service expects
- Tidal departures: between 2 to 3 ft above astronomical Tides tonight during high tide with locally higher values, 3 to 4.5 ft above astronomical Tides Monday morning, and potential for 6 to 11 ft above Monday night into Tuesday morning. The higher end of the range relegated to the New York Harbor, western Long Island Sound and the Long Island South Shore back bays.
- High Surf and beach erosion, breaking waves are expected to build to 15 to 20 ft along Ocean facing Shorelines By late Monday into Monday night. The destructive waves on top of the storm surge will cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure nearest to sea level. At the same time, 5 to 10 ft waves are possible along exposed eastern and northeastern facing portions of Long Island Sound, Peconic Bay, and New York Harbor. This is expected to cause major beach erosion and Washovers. This will especially be felt for Fire Island communities such as fair Harbor, Ocean Beach, Cherry Grove, Fire Island Pines and Davis Park.
Bunnies can blow that up, or, let Eli help you take a look at upper New York Bay, Brooklyn and Queens
Large chunks of the Rockaways, Coney Island and the other barrier islands gone, most of south Brooklyn, and kind of where the 678 shield is, oh yes, that was Kennedy Airport. Is it gonna be that bad. Hope not. Is it due to climate change? Well there has been significant, tho not huge general sea level rise and some extra special sauce with subsidence in the area, and, of course, we have loaded the climate dice, so all in all, remember the word and.
As a special added feature Shepard, et al Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York (Shepard et al. 2012, Nat. Hazards, 60:727–745 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0046-8) have looked at the combined effects of a 50 cm sea level rise and a cat 3 storm would be. This one is not cat 3, but it has a significant surge on top of a high tide, and is carrying lots of water. It will give the model a good workout.
Tamino has been dancing on the pointy headed critics of Shepard who are wearing rose colored glasses about future sea level rise and damages there from. Now some, not Eli to be sure, might say that he is a bit annoyed at the NC-20 crowd and their insistence that the sea levels are only increasing slowly if at all but he does have something to say about their need for reading glasses.
In closing, to those in the storm area, stay safe, don't do foolish things and spend your time reading and commenting on Rabett Run. It's safer.